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Labour will need a historic swing to win the general election expected in 2024, as the party’s path to power has been made more difficult by extensive boundary changes. Sir Keir Starmer will have to achieve a swing of 12.7 points from the Conservatives to become prime minister, new research shows – larger than the 10.2 point swing Tony Blair managed in his 1997 landslide, and more than double the swing at any other election since 1945. His task is made harder by the impact of the boundary changes, the first since 2010, and intended to ensure that constituencies have similar numbers of voters.