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Munster v Cardiff Rugby
Venue: Musgrave Park, Cork.
Kick-off: 7.35pm
On TV: Live on TG4, BBC Wales, Premier Sports
Such is the compression among the peleton behind Leinster in the URC table that Munster go into the penultimate round of the regular season in third place and come Saturday night could find themselves anywhere between second and sixth. The ramifications of Friday’s result for the knock-out stages are thus very significant.
A top-two finish could offer the carrot of a home route to the final, and a place in the top four would at least earn a quarter-final at Thomond Park presuming the pitch recovers after the Ed Sheeran concerts there next weekend, while finishing outside the top four would lead to an away quarter-final.
Any slip-ups here, and with Leinster still to come in their final game at the Aviva on May 21st, Munster’s play-off prognosis would not be especially promising.
Fittingly, therefore, for his own farewell to their Cork home, Johann van Graan has restored two of the city’s favourite sons among eight changes, namely Peter O’Mahony and Simon Zebo.
The captain missed their fine win away to Ulster a week ago due to an unspecified knock in his tour de force against Toulouse, while Zebo returns a week after he and fiancée Elvira Fernandez welcomed their fourth child Isabella.
Conor Murray and Ben Healy are also restored at half-back, with Rory Scannell starting at inside centre and Calvin Nash on the right wing.
Up front John Ryan also returns at tight-head, with Thomas Ahern set to start after illness relegated him to another impact role off the bench last week.
Academy hooker Scott Buckley is among the replacements and in line to make his seventh appearance of the campaign, and flanker Jack Daly is set for his first appearance since January after a spell on the sidelines with injury.
The Irish international trio of Craig Casey, Joey Carbery and Shane Daly are all named on the bench.
Well adrift
Cardiff stand 14th overall and are well adrift of the Scarlets and Ospreys in the Welsh shield. With Tomos Williams ruled out due to a hand injury, Lloyd Williams and Jarrod Evans return at half-back, as do Kristian Dacey and Dillon Lewis in the front row, while James Botham is restored to the back-row.
The existing 28-point gap between the two in the table would not have seemed likely when they last met in May in the Rainbow Cup. Munster won 31-27 and Cardiff were denied a penalty to the corner with the last play of the game after a successful “captain’s challenge” (remember them?) by CJ Stander on what was his farewell appearance at Thomond Park along with Tommy O’Donnell, James Cronin and Nick McCarthy.
Cardiff’s attacking game seemed markedly more advanced that day but their season has drifted away after a run of four successive defeats in all competitions.
That was Munster’s fifth successive win over the Blues and they have lost only once at home this season, to Leinster, while Cardiff have yet to win away from home in the URC in this campaign.
Furthermore, Munster have lost just once at Musgrave Park since 2016, to Edinburgh by 16-18 in November 2019, and have a particularly good record against Welsh opposition in this competition, losing just one of their last 15 fixtures against the regions.
Aside from the weight of historical evidence in Munster’s favour they are simply in better form and come into this game on the back of season-defining wins over Exeter and Ulster. And whereas Cardiff have nothing tangible to play for, Munster also have every incentive to bolster their hopes of returning to Thomond Park this season.
MUNSTER: Mike Haley, Calvin Nash, Chris Farrell, Rory Scannell, Simon Zebo, Ben Healy, Conor Murray, Jeremy Loughman, Diarmuid Barron, John Ryan, Jean Kleyn, Thomas Ahern, Peter O’Mahony (CAPT), Alex Kendellen, Jack O’Donoghue. Replacements: Scott Buckley, Josh Wycherley, Keynan Knox, Jason Jenkins, Jack Daly, Craig Casey, Joey Carbery, Shane Daly.
CARDIFF RUGBY: Hallam Amos, Owen Lane, Rey Lee-Lo, Max Llewellyn, Theo Cabango, Jarrod Evans, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Carré, Kristian Dacey, Dillon Lewis, Seb Davies, Rory Thornton, James Botham, Josh Navidi (CAPT), James Ratti. Replacements: Kirby Myhill, Brad Thyer, Keiron Assiratti, Matthew Screech, Ellis Jenkins, Jamie Hill, Rhys Priestland, Garyn Smith.
Referee: Sam Grove-White (SRU).
Forecast: Munster to win.