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THE rest of the world, including the Caribbean, needs to understand that the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are by no means temporary.
Ambassador Dr Richard Bernal, Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies (SALISES) professor of practice, made this observation during a virtual UWI Pro Vice-Chancellor's Forum on Thursday.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.
Bernal compared the unfolding crisis in Ukraine to steps the Caribbean takes annually during hurricane season in the region. "There is going to be need for preparation."
Bernal said many people do not understand the genesis of the Russian invasion dates back to the Cold War, when the former Soviet Union was deathly afraid of being encircled by Western European nations. In that era, several Eastern European nations (including Ukraine) formed a security buffer zone between the Soviet Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its associated East European alliance, Bernal said Ukraine has assumed greater political and national security interests to Russia.
"Ukraine is at the very confluence (in Europe) where east meets west."
With the possibility of NATO being directly on its doorstep, Bernal continued, "To the Russians, it is something very concerning."
He said the implications of the Ukraine fall into broad economic, social and political categories.
Bernal observed the economic category side is being seen through things such as the imposition of sanctions against Russia and volatile global energy prices. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil were trading at US$112 and U$109 per barrel respectively. Natural gas was trading at US$4.622 per mmbtu.
With Russia and Ukraine accounting for approximately one third of global wheat supply, Bernal said this could lead to a rise in food prices and a food security challenge in other parts of the world.
On the social side, he continued, there is a massive migrant and refugee crisis which has not been seen since World War II.
"More than two million people have already left Ukraine."
Bernal said considerable financial and other resources would have to be used to rebuild Ukraine, once a peaceful resolution to the crisis is achieved.
He also said the invasion of Ukraine has rebuilt unity in NATO, which had been damaged under the Donald Trump administration in the United States.
Bernal was concerned that a few powerful nations could set the rules for global governance at the expense of other countries. He was also concerned that the UN could find itself becoming marginalised in such a scenario.
Seladon Petroleum Associates Ltd management consultant Bashir Bedawi agreed. "There is a crisis in the oil industry at the moment."
Bedawi described Russia's oil and gas pipeline network as "the claws of the Russian bear."
One part of the network supplies Western European nations such as Germany, Italy and Austria with oil and natural gas. He added, "The other claw of the Russian bear extends into China."
Recalling that sanctions have been imposed by some countries on Russian oil imports. Bedawi said China and India have been able to buy some of the stranded Russian oil.
He also said people need to be aware that oil refineries are complex operations.
"They don't just take oil from, let's say, Trinidad."
Bedawi said the manufacture of petroleum products (such as gasoline) involves mixing heavy and light crude oils from different sources.
"A refinery needs a mix of light oils and heavy oils to be able to produce the feedstock that can ultimately give them diesel, gasoline, whatever their target product is."
Russia produces a heavy crude oil. Bedawi added, "So there is a shortage of heavy crude right now."
With sanctions imposed against Russian oil imports, Bedawi said recent conversations between the US and Venezuela could see the easing of sanctions on the latter to allow its heavy crude oil to fill the gap left by Russia. He added that dynamics like these affect the production of various petroleum products and the prices people pay at the pump.
UWI Vice Chancellor Sir Hilary Beckles said institutions like UWI need to be part of the conversation to bring solutions to the challenges the Ukraine crisis can bring to the rest of the world.
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