Who is popular today?

A few weeks ago DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson put all of his party’s eggs into Boris Johnson’s basket. Having told his colleagues “we are totally opposed to the protocol as it presently exists, we will neither accept it nor will we work it”, he added: “Let me be clear – if the choice is ultimately between remaining in office or implementing the protocol in its present form, then the only option for any unionist Minister [in the NI Executive] would be to cease to hold such office.”
In other words, Donaldson was telling Johnson the price for leaving the protocol as it is will be collapse of the Executive, with no guarantee that it can be rebooted after an election. The last hiatus lasted from January 2017-2020 and we are now on the third crisis since then.
But Donaldson needed to sound tough. He is the third DUP leader this year and opinion polls have his party at its lowest level of support in almost 30 years. He needs to take control of the unionist agenda if he is to survive, and that has meant provoking a showdown with Johnson and threatening possible collapse and lengthy instability. His problem, of course, is that Johnson has let down (although party representatives prefer the term “betray”) the DUP twice since he became prime minister. The protocol is primarily his doing: pushed through to “get Brexit done”.
Johnson has a growing mountain of other problems. He wanted Brexit done. Done and dusted. Finished with. Out of his in-tray. Off his desk. But triggering article 16 of the protocol – which is what Donaldson wants him to do – would bring nothing but a huge confrontation with the EU, which is the very last thing Johnson wants right now, not least because vast swathes of the regenerated English nationalism which delivered election victory for him two years ago don’t actually give a stuff about Northern Ireland.
That said, does he want to be the prime minister who allows the 1998 peace process and its political institutions to collapse? Who really knows when it comes to Johnson? David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator with the EU, has spent the last few weeks – including a speech at the Conservative party conference – acknowledging the difficulties the protocol presents for unionists. But, so far, he hasn’t confirmed he will trigger article 16, arguing it would be better to reach an agreement with the EU to address the problems amicably.
Which suggests he knows the protocol is, almost certainly, here to stay. And he knows that, because all article 16 does is open the door to months of negotiations, with every likelihood the protocol will be much the same at the end of the negotiation process as it is right now. So, is that a possible escape route for Johnson? Triggering gives Donaldson the cover not to collapse the Assembly; it allows him to look as though he still has Johnson’s ear; and also allows him to go into the Assembly election (due by next May) claiming to have forced the prime minister’s hand. The perfect background, in other words, for the DUP to see off challenges from its UUP/TUV unionist rivals (both ahead in opinion polls) and allow it to return as the largest party.
Blocking powers But triggering a
rticle 16 still leaves him problems. He has to trust Johnson. He has to return the DUP as biggest party, allowing it first pick as First Minister. He has to win the 46 Assembly seats necessary to prove there is a majority against the protocol, as well as giving him blocking powers on some protocol issues. At this point two of those requirements – emerging as the biggest party and winning an overall unionist majority – will be difficult to pull off. And failure to do so will weaken his leadership (possibly forcing his resignation) as well as allowing Johnson to row back on any protocol promises he may have given, arguing unionism doesn’t represent a majority of opinion on it.
It is still possible, of course, Johnson will do nothing. Northern Ireland unionists – including Donaldson, Doug Beattie, Jim Allister, Arlene Foster and David Trimble – hosted a number of fringe events at the Conservative party conference, setting out their concerns about the protocol and the damage it was doing to the constitutional integrity of the UK. But while the events were reasonably well attended there didn’t appear to be much evidence the issue was particularly pressing for Conservatives. And there were no specific commitments from Johnson during his keynote speech at the conference. Indeed, he didn’t even mention it. So, will he just do nothing? Forcing Donaldson into a walk-out and early election creates more problems for Donaldson than for Johnson.
I think the feeling in UK government circles is there is no real appetite across unionism for a fight with the government, especially one it has no guarantee of winning. Yes, there are clearly elements of unionism and loyalism very unhappy with the protocol, but it’s very unlikely they have the numbers or the strategy for a long period of protest. Johnson, I reckon, believes unionism will finally learn to live with the protocol, albeit with a few changes to help businesses.
It seems to me he has three options. Give Donaldson nothing and let him risk an early election in very difficult circumstances. Trigger article 16, just to keep the Assembly up and running until the election, and then conclude a soft landing with the EU which keeps the protocol more or less in place. Or do what Johnson usually does with unionists: dissemble with the straightest of faces and keep the rug over the trapdoor until the last moment.
Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party